Hello,
Welcome to
Stock
Market Trading
the new look newsletter for
2011 from Traders
Day
Trading & Kenny's
Elliott Waves Blog.
*****
S&P 500 Cash Index - The
Week Ahead
The
Week That Was...
My estimated price range for last week
was 1334-1310 and the market went to a high of 1333.77 before a sharp
rejection pushed it all the way back down to 1309 where it found the
support.
"The dilemma for this
week is whether to go long with the shorter term
timing studies that was looking for a low centered on Thursday, or to
go short with the markets failure to break through the resistance and
Fridays bearish engulfing candle...."
It was not until Thursday that the support finally gave way and hit my
swing long entry price before printing a low at 1302.42. We then got
the
expected rally into the end of the week from there.
The
Week Ahead...
1/The
main problem is as I indicated last week, that it looks as if the
S&P500 could have topped, but the larger cycles are still
supporting the market for now.
2/The S&P500 has already done enough to satisfy the bearish
bias from
the bearish engulfing candle from the previous Friday, so it is no
longer
a consideration.
3/The
low tested the 38.2 retrace of the rally from the March low and could
be considered as bullish from here, as it could have completed the
second wave within the Red Elliott Wave count from the charts posted
in Kennys Blog
4/Fridays high only made it to the 50% retrace of the decline which I
normally associate with a 'b' wave. Since it exceeded the 38.2 retrace
I would prefer to see the 61.8 for a second wave.
5/The island reversal on the daily chart would be a bullish signal if
the gap at 1324.46 gets filled and would cast doubt on the second wave
count if it were to print the 61.8
6/The short term low came in very late and that
time cycle is now in the sweet spot for the next high which should come
in on time if the market has indeed topped out.
7/This suggests that the market should turn down again quite sharply
early in the week.
Confused?
That is the nature of the beast but fortunately, it is not a question
of being right or wrong. We do not need to know, and can never 'know' what is going
to happen. The larger plan suggested that the S&P500
may have topped so that is what I will be going with for this week
ahead, and will let the money management strategy take care of the
rest.
|
| Pivots |
Monday |
Weekly |
Monthtly |
| R3 |
1337.15
|
1384.15 |
1468.84 |
| R2 |
1327.95 |
1352.80 |
1385.61 |
| R1 |
1323.81 |
1340.49 |
1355.72 |
| Pivot |
1318.75 |
1321.45 |
1302.38 |
| S1 |
1314.61 |
1309.14 |
1272.49 |
| S2 |
1309.55 |
1290.10 |
1219.15 |
| S3 |
1300.35 |
1258.75 |
1135.92 |
| Current |
Week |
Month
 |
Year
 |
| Open |
0 |
1329.48 |
1257.64 |
| High |
0 |
1339.46 |
1344.07 |
| Low |
0 |
1302.42 |
1249.05 |
| Range |
0 |
37.04
|
95.02 |
| Previous |
Day
|
Week
|
Month
|
Year
|
| Open |
1314.54
|
1329.01 |
1328.64 |
1116.56 |
| High |
1322.88 |
1333.77 |
1332.28 |
1219.8 |
| Low |
1313.68 |
1302.42 |
1249.05 |
1011.40 |
| Close |
1319.68 |
1319.68 |
1325.82 |
1258.84 |
| Range |
9.2 |
31.35 |
83.23
|
208.4 |
Key
Support and Resistance Levels
|
1381 |
|
1370 |
|
1360 |
|
1353 |
|
1344 |
|
1340 |
|
1334 |
|
1326 |
| High? |
1322
|
| Current |
1319 |
|
1312
|
|
1310 |
|
1305 |
|
1303
|
|
1298 |
|
1293 |
| Low? |
1288 |
|
1273 |
|
1268 |
|
1257 |
|
1249
|
|
1225 |
Bold
Numbers = Stronger Support and Resistance
Trade Set
Ups for the Week Ahead
There were very good reasons for the time resitrictions set on last
weeks trade set ups but unfortunately these meant that niether trade
entry was triggered.
The
mixed signals from last weekends analysis meant that it was prudent for
this format not to call a swing short until the end of the week so
despite nailing the
high at 1334, I can not claim any of the potential 32 points from it,
just as I can not claim the 10 points resulting from the set up on the
swing long trade from 1308.
From so far in advance of the events,
both trade set ups looked at the time to be too high risk to call, if
they filled outwith
the expected time frames. This week I have the same dilemma as I want
to be swing short, but where from? It is essential to keep it within my
10 point money management strategy or to have a clear exit based on
the technical analysis that I can budget for.
After the market closed on Friday, quotes went back to the days high at
1323 so that should be enough to keep it within a workable margin of
error as 1334 remains a key number.
******
NOTE:
For this format I am using a 10 point stop loss on the weekly trade set
up and 3 points on the day trade set up, unless otherwise indicated.
******
Kennys Stock Market Trade for the
Week 1
| Market |
Trade |
Open |
Target |
TA
Stop |
| S&P
500 Cash Index |
sell |
1323 |
1288 |
1239 |
Kennys Stock Market Trade for the
Week 2
| Market |
Trade |
Open |
Target |
| S&P
500 Cash Index |
sell |
1330 |
1316 |
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