Hello,
Welcome to
Stock
Market Trading
the new look newsletter for
2011 from Traders
Day
Trading & Kenny's
Elliott Waves Blog.
*****
S&P 500 Cash Index - The
Week Ahead
The
Week That Was...
Readers of last weeks newsletter will be
well aware of the conflicting signals I had for last weeks trading. The
plan that I came up with meant that I was
looking for the market to drop from the outset, with an estimated
weekly high of 1322, but I did allow for a potential pop and
drop in my trade set
ups.
In fact the market duly obliged with the sharp decline from the off,
all the way down to within 6 points of my target at 1288 dropping 29
points before the buyers appeared and bought it all the way back to
close higher on the week.
*****
We do not need to know,
and can never 'know' what is going
to happen. The larger plan suggested that the S&P500
may have topped so that is what I will be going with for this week
ahead, and will let the money management strategy take care of the
rest.
Once
again the plan was a good one in real time trading with a nice haul of
points for the week, which I believe demonstrates this statement from
last week very well. Despite the numerous conflicting signals that
there were, there was absoluetly No Fear with this
trade. The money managment strategy was in place and if it had gone the
wrong way, it would have been a normal trading loss.
The
Week Ahead...
The 7 points I listed last week are
still important for this weeks analysis so please do take a look at
this blog post where I have 'Analyized the analysis' and there is a
visual of it with a chart.
http://blog.tradersdaytrading.com/elliott-waves/stock-market-tradi
ng-technicalanalysis/2257/
If the "One
degree of trend upwards" 'B' wave count on the chart is correct, the
market should be due a fairly spectacular move down once the 'C' wave
is complete. That means we just have to pin down 'C' to within an
acceptable margin of error. What I am talking about here is
the potential for the S&P500 to shed at least 160-200 points
over the next few weeks.
The larger cycles are still pointing upwards but are now much nearer
the sweet spot.
Regular visitors may have noticed that the Red line in my chart at
1338.1 has been left there for some time now and although I have not
mentioned its importance before, I believe it is a very important
number and would prefer not to see a daily close above that line.
Bottom line is that I am on full crash alert from here but should see
that take shape early in the week if it is going to happen.
The main conflicting signals this week are the fact that price closed
above my down sloping trendline resistance on Friday and would fit with
the inverted head and shoulders that has been forming on the daily
chart over the last 2 months.
|
| Pivots |
Monday |
Weekly |
Monthtly |
| R3 |
1345.22
|
1408.77 |
1468.84 |
| R2 |
1340.56 |
1365.98 |
1385.61 |
| R1 |
1338.97 |
1351.68 |
1355.72 |
| Pivot |
1335.90 |
1323.19 |
1302.38 |
| S1 |
1334.31 |
1308.89 |
1272.49 |
| S2 |
1331.24 |
1280.40 |
1219.15 |
| S3 |
1326.58 |
1237.61 |
1135.92 |
| Current |
Week |
Month
 |
Year
 |
| Open |
0 |
1329.48 |
1257.64 |
| High |
0 |
1339.46 |
1344.07 |
| Low |
0 |
1294.70 |
1249.05 |
| Range |
0 |
44.76
|
95.02 |
| Previous |
Day
|
Week
|
Month
|
Year
|
| Open |
1333.23
|
1329.01 |
1328.64 |
1116.56 |
| High |
1337.49 |
1337.49 |
1332.28 |
1219.8 |
| Low |
1332.83 |
1294.70 |
1249.05 |
1011.40 |
| Close |
1337.38 |
1337.38 |
1325.82 |
1258.84 |
| Range |
4.66 |
31.35 |
83.23
|
208.4 |
Key
Support and Resistance Levels
|
1381 |
|
1370 |
|
1360 |
|
1353 |
|
1344 |
| High?
|
1340 |
| Current |
1337 |
|
1334 |
|
1326 |
|
1322
|
|
1319 |
|
1312
|
|
1310 |
|
1305 |
|
1303
|
|
1298 |
|
1293 |
| Low? |
1288 |
|
1273 |
|
1268 |
|
1257 |
|
1249
|
|
1225 |
Bold
Numbers = Stronger Support and Resistance
Trade Set
Ups for the Week Ahead
Once again my self imposed rules for the trade set ups have worked
against me this week.
Despite the analysis working out near perfectly with the potential to
bank up to 29 points on that one single trade, my target price was a
little bit too greedy and did not print. That means I have to mark it
up as a 16 point loss instead, as the market reveresed all the way up
to hit my stop in premarket trading on Thursday.
This week, the S&P500 closed on Thurssday at 1238 and I am now in full crash mode alert, so will take one swing trade and a longer term short position trade from there.
******
NOTE:
For this format I am using a 10 point stop loss on the weekly trade set
up, 3 points on the day trade set up and 25 points on a position trade,
unless otherwise indicated.
******
Kennys Stock Market Trade for the
Week
| Market |
Trade |
Open |
Target |
| S&P
500 Cash Index |
sell |
1338 |
1295 |
Kennys Stock Market Position Trade
| Market |
Trade |
Open |
Target |
| S&P
500 Cash Index |
sell |
1338 |
1175 |
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