Hello,
Welcome to
Stock
Market Trading
the new look newsletter for
2011 from Traders
Day
Trading & Kenny's
Elliott Waves Blog.
*****
S&P 500 Cash Index - The
Week Ahead
The
Week That Was...
Someone has to go and mention the
'crash' word and true to form, it goes and breaks out through
resistance...
"Bottom line is
that I am on full crash alert from here but should see that take shape
early in the week if it is going to happen."
"Regular
visitors may have noticed that the Red line in my chart at 1338.1 has
been left there for some time now and although I have not mentioned its
importance before, I believe it is a very important number and would
prefer not to see a daily close above that line."
Monday saw a brief and shallow reaction at 1338 to back test the break
and close above the down sloping channel trend line, before reversing
back up and heading higher.
The
Week Ahead...
Despite the break higher, there is still
no change the Elliott Wave count. The 'c' wave is still only around
0.786 x wave 'a'.
"If the "One degree of
trend upwards" 'B' wave count on the chart is correct, the market
should be due a fairly spectacular move down once the 'c' wave is
complete. That means we just have to pin down 'c' to within an
acceptable margin of error. "
Monday is a Holiday in the UK with the Ftse closed until Tuesady, so it
looks as though there may still be a little time to mark until then.
I still believe that the next CIT will see the chunky dump all the way
down to my larger 'C' wave targets but as always, it is more important
not to go bust trying to call it.
"What I am talking about
here is the
potential for the S&P500 to shed at least 160-200 points over
the
next few weeks."
"The larger cycles are
still pointing upwards but are now much nearer the sweet spot. "
Long term time cycles are still in effect but are getting there.
|
| Pivots |
Monday |
Weekly |
Monthtly |
| R3 |
1374.03
|
1419.39 |
1480.68 |
| R2 |
1368.16 |
1386.30 |
1410.82 |
| R1 |
1365.88 |
1374.96 |
1387.21 |
| Pivot |
1362.29 |
1353.21 |
1340.96 |
| S1 |
1360.01 |
1341.87 |
1317.35 |
| S2 |
1356.42 |
1320.12 |
1271.10 |
| S3 |
1350.55 |
1287.03 |
1201.24 |
| Current |
Week |
Month
 |
Year
|
| Open |
0 |
0 |
1257.64 |
| High |
0 |
0 |
1364.56 |
| Low |
0 |
0 |
1249.05 |
| Range |
0 |
0
|
115.51 |
|
|
|
|
| Previous |
Day
|
Week
|
Month
|
Year
|
| Open |
1360.14
|
1337.14 |
1329.48 |
1116.56 |
| High |
1364.56 |
1364.56 |
1364.56 |
1219.8 |
| Low |
1358.69 |
1331.47 |
1294.70 |
1011.40 |
| Close |
1363.61 |
1363.61 |
1363.61 |
1258.84 |
| Range |
5.87 |
33.09 |
69.86
|
208.4 |
Key
Support and Resistance Levels
|
1381 |
| High? |
1370 |
| Current |
1363 |
|
1360 |
|
1353 |
|
1344 |
|
|
1340 |
| Low?
|
1334 |
|
1326 |
|
1322
|
|
1319 |
|
1312
|
|
1310 |
|
1305 |
|
1303
|
|
1298 |
|
1293 |
|
1288 |
|
1273 |
|
1268 |
|
1257 |
|
1249
|
|
1225 |
Bold
Numbers = Stronger Support and Resistance
Trade Set
Ups for the Week Ahead
Last week was a complete wash out for the trade set ups. The daily
close above 1338.1 killed the immediate bear count and short trades
should have been closed at that point, as per the analysis.
Once again my rules are going to work against me here as I did not
specify stops. I will mark this up as a 35 point loss for the
week. In reality the 25 point stop on the position trade is too wide
and was poor money management so I will tighten that up a bit to 15
points for future.
This week I want to be short again and will give it another shot from
1370 if it gets there and this takes me to another important feature of
my money management strategy.
In addition to having a budgeted stop loss in place for each trade, I
believe that it is also prudent not to waste too much resources by
getting married to any one particular call.
Although a stop loss is placed on each individual trade, numerous
losses can soon mount up to become a substantial drawdown and seriously
damage any trading account. My rules permit me to have only 3 failed
attempts on each trade set up such as this one, thus protecting myself
from...myself.
This rule forces me to accept that it is not working, and
avoids incurring heavy losses on any one particular call when the
market just does not want to play ball.
******
NOTE:
For this format I am using a 10 point stop loss on the weekly trade set
up, 3 points on the day trade set up and 15 points on a position trade,
unless otherwise indicated.
******
Kennys Stock Market Trade for the
Week
| Market |
Trade |
Open |
Target |
| S&P
500 Cash Index |
sell |
1370 |
1337 |
Kennys Stock Market Position Trade
| Market |
Trade |
Open |
Target |
| S&P
500 Cash Index |
sell |
1370 |
1175 |
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