Hello,
Welcome to
Stock
Market Trading
the new look newsletter for
2011 from Traders
Day
Trading & Kenny's
Elliott Waves Blog.
*****
S&P 500 Cash Index - The
Week Ahead
The
Week That Was...
On Friday we had another Fantastic Free
Friday from Khalsa and you will
know from the commentary there that we had another great days trading.
Thank you very much to Khalsas for that.
It was an amazing week where the numbers played out very much as
planned. I forecast the price range for the week to be 1370-1334 and
what we got was.....1370-1329.
I planned to enter swing short, and have another go at a position trade
short from 1370. Both trades worked out extremely well as the market
declined into the swing trade target at 1337 on Thursday,
before a bit of volatility which continued on Friday. Those are the
markets that I love to trade intraday. Fast moving and with a decent
range.
The
Week Ahead...
So the question for us this week is, are
we in the initial stages of my 'fairly
spectacular move down' phase, or has the S&P500
found support on the channel trend line that was previously resistance,
setting up another bull run?
"If the "One degree of
trend upwards" 'B' wave count on the chart is correct, the market
should be due a fairly spectacular move down once the 'c' wave is
complete. That means we just have to pin down 'c' to within an
acceptable margin of error. "
"What I am talking about
here is the
potential for the S&P500 to shed at least 160-200 points over
the
next few weeks."
"The larger cycles are
still pointing upwards but are now much nearer the sweet spot. "
It will be no surprise to you that I do believe that the market has
topped and this should ensure a decline through to late in the month.
The Long term cycle would still be early, but that is what is expected
as I believe that the larger bull run is at an end, and the 'c' wave
of 'B' is now complete.
The week ahead should therefore see a continuation down, but there is a
possibility that the long term cycle may have some life in it yet and
could allow for another pop above Fridays high, further back testing
the validity of 1370 as the top.
On Friday, I suggested that the market would close 1335-37...it
actually closed at 1340 and quotes then dropped to 1338. I believe that
cash will gap down below this when it opens on Monday and then can fill
the gap before heading down for the week.
The alternative scenario is that 1137 will hold and there will be an
attack on Fridays high again.
|
| Pivots |
Monday |
Weekly |
Monthtly |
| R3 |
1380.94
|
1429.42 |
1480.68 |
| R2 |
1362.16 |
1388.03 |
1410.82 |
| R1 |
1351.18 |
1364.12 |
1387.21 |
| Pivot |
1343.38 |
1346.64 |
1340.96 |
| S1 |
1332.40 |
1322.73 |
1317.35 |
| S2 |
1324.60 |
1305.25 |
1271.10 |
| S3 |
1305.82 |
1263.86 |
1201.24 |
| Current |
Week |
Month
 |
Year
 |
| Open |
0 |
1365.21
|
1257.64 |
| High |
0 |
1370.56 |
1370.56 |
| Low |
0 |
1329.17 |
1249.05 |
| Range |
0 |
41.39
|
121.51
|
| Previous |
Day
|
Week
|
Month
|
Year
|
| Open |
1340.24
|
1365.21 |
1329.48 |
1116.56 |
| High |
1354.36 |
1370.56 |
1364.56 |
1219.8 |
| Low |
1335.58 |
1329.17 |
1294.70 |
1011.40 |
| Close |
1340.20 |
1340.20 |
1363.61 |
1258.84 |
| Range |
18.78 |
41.39 |
69.86
|
208.4 |
Key
Support and Resistance Levels
|
1381 |
Top?
|
1370 |
|
1360 |
|
1353 |
| High?
|
1344 |
|
Current |
1340 |
|
|
1334 |
|
1326 |
|
1322
|
|
1319 |
|
1312
|
|
1310 |
|
1305 |
|
1303
|
|
1298 |
|
1293 |
|
1288 |
| Low? |
1273 |
|
1268 |
|
1257 |
|
1249
|
|
1225 |
Bold
Numbers = Stronger Support and Resistance
Trade Set
Ups for the Week Ahead
Following the washout on the previous weeks trades, last weeks 2 trades
recouped those losses and nearly as much again. These weeks 2 trades
alone were worth a total of 63 points to me, at the close of play on
Friday.
The swing trade short from 1370 banked 33 points on Thursday when it
hit the 1337 target and the position trade is currently running 30
point in profit. The stop loss on this trade has now been brought down
to break even, giving me a free ride on that trade from here.
This week I want to add another position short. If this had been a
daily newsletter I would have added it
at Fridays high at 1354 but as it is I will have to let my money
management rules take care of me.
******
NOTE:
For this format I am using a 10 point stop loss on the weekly trade set
up, 3 points on the day trade set up and 15 points on a position trade,
unless otherwise indicated.
******
Kennys Stock Market Trade for
the
Week
| Market |
Trade |
Open |
Target |
| S&P
500 Cash Index |
Sell |
1342 |
1313 |
Kennys Stock Market Position Trade
| Market |
Trade |
Open |
Target |
| S&P
500 Cash Index |
Sell |
1344 |
1175 |
********************************
Open Positions
Kennys Stock Market Position Trade
| Market |
Trade |
Open |
Target |
Stop |
| S&P
500 Cash Index |
Sell |
1370 |
1175 |
1370 |
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