Hello,
Welcome to
Stock
Market Trading
the new look newsletter for
2011 from Traders
Day
Trading & Kenny's
Elliott Waves Blog.
Important, the information provided here
is supplied for educational purposes only and should not be taken as
financial advice or an inducement to trade. Please refer to the full
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independent financial advice where necessary.
S&P 500 Cash Index - The
Week Ahead
The
Week That Was...
Khalsa
gave us another fantastic Free Friday and if you have not yet had the
chance to take a look, please do join us next week. Don't forget that
you can also benefit from a free weeks analysis over at Khalsaspad.com
when you register for Khalsas free forums and contact K to request your
free week, quoting Kennys Elliott Waves Blog
In last weeks newsletter we were looking for a bit of a reaction
downwards from the resistance of the rising channel trendline at 1333
on Monday with a target at 1324, as 1323 became a key pivotal level.
"I
can see no real reason why 1330 should mark an important top
and the next major fibo is the 78.6 retracement at 1381"
As it happened, 1333 did touch on Monday and 1324 was where the
dipsters came back in, buying the market right on cue.
The market then continued its grind higher this week with the
S&P 500 Futures reaching the C = 0.618 x A at 1342 on Friday as
we discussed in the Khalsas Free Friday blog post. This was
still short of the equivalent target on the cash market with a
potential 1153 target on the cards.
The
Week Ahead...
We decided to run a swing short from
Friday based on reaching 1342 and futures have taken a bit of a dive
today. Cash markets were closed due to the Presidents Day holiday.
Quotes for the S&P 500 cash market are currently quoted down 10
points from Fridays close and is sitting on the channel trendline again
after slightly overshooting it during the week.
So the question now is, did the market top or not?
Unfortunately it will take a lot more than that 10 point drop to
confirm a trend change so care must now be taken to protect that swing
short position.
| Pivots |
Monday |
Weekly |
Monthly |
| R3 |
1353.63
|
1376.15 |
1372.24 |
| R2 |
1347.68 |
1356.69 |
1327.19 |
| R1 |
1345.45 |
1349.85 |
1306.65 |
| Pivot |
1341.73 |
1337.23 |
1282.14 |
| S1 |
1339.40 |
1330.39 |
1261.60 |
| S2 |
1335.78 |
1317.77 |
1237.09 |
| S3 |
1329.83 |
1298.31 |
1192.04 |
| Current |
Week
 |
Month
|
Year
|
| Open |
0 |
1289.14 |
1257.64 |
| High |
0 |
1344.07 |
1344.07 |
| Low |
0 |
1289.14 |
1257.62 |
| Range |
0 |
54.93 |
86.45 |
| Previous |
Day
|
Week
|
Month
|
Year
|
| Open |
1340.38 |
1328.73 |
1257.64 |
1116.56 |
| High |
1344.07 |
1344.07 |
1302.67 |
1219.8 |
| Low |
1338.12 |
1324.61 |
1257.62 |
1011.40 |
| Close |
1343.01 |
1343.01 |
1286.12 |
1258.84 |
| Range |
5.95 |
19.46 |
45.05 |
208.4 |
Key
Support and Resistance Levels
|
1381 |
|
1370 |
|
1360 |
| High? |
1353 |
|
1344 |
| Current |
1343 |
|
1334 |
|
1325 |
|
1323 |
| Open
Gap |
1310.87 |
| Low? |
1293 |
|
1288 |
|
1225 |
|
1184 |
Bold
Numbers = Stronger Support and Resistance
Trade Set
Ups for the Week Ahead
Last weeks trades were looking to sell 1333 on Monday targeting 1324
and worked out perfectly hitting the entry near the close of play on
Monday. The weekly trade ended up losing, but in reality that
trade should also have been closed in a profit. As soon as it became
clear that we were going back up it should have been closed.
For this
format I am using a 10 point stop loss on the weekly trade and 3
points on the day trade. This resulted in a -2 for the weekbut sould
have been nearer +14.
It
is important to remember that technical analysis does not tell us what
will happen, it is about the odds and probabilities of what to expect
to happen given a certain set of circumstances.
As
circumstances change so must expectations, and trading plans must be
adapted to fit those new circumstances.
That said, I do not give up easily and will continue to try to develop
the format in to a useful resource.
Tuesdays open is all about that trendline support. Bears need to
convert it back into resistance to avoid a straight run to 1153.
The cash markets open is likely to see prices drop lower but we can not
short from down here as it is quite possible that a reversal back
higher would trigger enough stops so see a run straight to 1153.
Kennys Stock Market Trade for the
Day
| Market |
Trade |
Open |
Target |
| S&P
500 Cash Index |
Sell |
1353
or Best Price |
1344 |
Kennys Stock Market Trade for the
Week
| Market |
Trade |
Open |
Target |
| S&P
500 Cash Index |
Sell |
1343 (from
Friday)
or Best Price |
1312 |
Thank you for subscribing to Stock
Market Trading, please do us a big favor an send it to a
friend who may find it useful.
Kenny
|
