Hello,
Welcome to
Stock
Market Trading
the new look newsletter for
2011 from Traders
Day
Trading & Kenny's
Elliott Waves Blog.
Important, the information provided here
is supplied for educational purposes only and should not be taken as
financial advice or an inducement to trade. Please refer to the full
terms and conditions at www.tradersdaytrading.com and seek
independent financial advice where necessary.
S&P 500 Cash Index - The
Week Ahead
The
Week That Was...
Last week saw a decisive break down
through our 1293 key pivot level almost straight from the Globex open
and killed off the chances of the potential new high for the week, into
our 1353 target. Once our key support level at 1293 broke, the market
swiftly shed another 40+ points to print a low for the week at
1249.
Last week
we gave the key pivot level as 1293 cash and that means that this weeks
call is no less tricky than it was last week.
The trade set up entries for last week were not triggered as we wanted
to see the opening price action, and it gapped straight down through
our support levels negating the bullish scenario almost
immediately.
This week, we will not
know until we see some price action on Monday
whether to expect a gap and go to 1312 or if it will back test 1300
first
Prices dropped straight through our ST pivot level at 1298 and in fact,
a perfect back test of 1298 turned out to be as high as they could
push it back up.
The
Week Ahead...
This week is another extremely mixed bag of signals as the
S&P500 bounced off the lower channel trend line, and then very
quickly recovered more than 50% of its losses for the week before
easing back into Fridays close.
Our time studies suggest a fair bit of volatility in the next few weeks
as we have a number of conflicting CITs due throughout the different
time frames. This will ensure that the short term is far from
predictable much in advance, with any degree of certainty.
My best guess is that this week will see another pop at 1293 and
probably 1303-5 by Wednesday but beyond that it is a very tough call as
much will depend on what happens between now and then.
1268 looks to be the key support level that will be pivotal, but as you
may have noticed from the second table below, 1257 is a big number
also. Wednesday saw the lowest close for the year so far, more or less
at that 1257 level, so a close below that would suggest that there is
more action to come below that.
| Pivots |
Monday |
Weekly |
Monthly |
| R3 |
1306.82
|
1379.36 |
1430.00 |
| R2 |
1294.12 |
1343.67 |
1375.07 |
| R1 |
1286.66 |
1323.98 |
1351.15 |
| Pivot |
1281.42 |
1276.48 |
1320.14 |
| S1 |
1273.96 |
1251.77 |
1296.22 |
| S2 |
1268.72 |
1224.34 |
1265.21 |
| S3 |
1256.02 |
1172.20 |
1210.28 |
| Current |
Week
 |
Month
|
Year
 |
| Open |
0 |
1307.07 |
1257.64 |
| High |
0 |
1332.28 |
1344.07 |
| Low |
0 |
1249.05 |
1249.05 |
| Range |
0 |
83.23 |
95.02 |
| Previous |
Day
|
Week
|
Month
|
Year
|
| Open |
1276.71 |
1301.19 |
1289.14 |
1116.56 |
| High |
1288.88 |
1301.19 |
1344.07 |
1219.8 |
| Low |
1276.18 |
1249.05 |
1289.14 |
1011.40 |
| Close |
1279.20 |
1279.20 |
1327.22 |
1258.84 |
| Range |
12.7 |
52.14 |
54.93 |
208.4 |
Key
Support and Resistance Levels
|
1381 |
|
1370 |
|
1360 |
|
1353 |
|
1344 |
|
1334 |
|
1326 |
|
1322
|
|
1316
|
|
1305 |
|
1303
|
|
1298 |
| MT
Pivot |
1293 |
| ST
Resistance |
1288 |
| Current |
1279.2 |
|
1273 |
| ST
Support |
1268 |
|
1257 |
|
1249
|
|
1225 |
Bold
Numbers = Stronger Support and Resistance
Trade Set
Ups for the Week Ahead
This week we are looking to long 1270 on any weakness on Monday,
otherwise the trade will be negated. The target will be 1293.
If the market opens up, we want to sell 1285 with a target of 1274 and
a stop at 1290 but again, this trade is time specific and is a day
trade for Monday only.
******
NOTE:
For this format I am using a 10 point stop loss on the weekly trade set
up and 3 points on the day trade set up, unless otherwise indicated.
It
is important to remember that technical analysis does not tell us what
will happen, it is about the odds and probabilities of what to expect
to happen given a certain set of circumstances. As circumstances change
so must expectations, and trading plans must be adapted to fit those
new circumstances.
******
Kennys Stock Market Trade for the
Day
| Market |
Trade |
Open |
Target |
Stop |
| S&P
500 Cash Index |
Sell |
1285 |
1274 |
1290 |
Kennys Stock Market Trade for the
Week
| Market |
Trade |
Open |
Target |
| S&P
500 Cash Index |
Buy |
1270 |
1293 |
Thank you for subscribing to Stock
Market Trading, please do us a big favor an send it to a
friend who may find it useful.
Kenny
|
